Blog
Guides on testing a forex strategy by hand and reading your own statistics, without drawing confident conclusions from noise.
Sessions6 min read
39% to 78%the plausible true win rate behind 12 wins in 20 trades
The London and New York overlap, 08:00 to 12:00 New York time, is the busiest forex window. Here's how to measure which session pays for your strategy.
Statistics10 min read
81%chance of 5 losses in a row in 100 trades at a 50% win rate
At a 50% win rate, 5 losses in a row show up in 81% of samples of 100 trades. Exact losing streak odds by win rate, and what they mean for your risk.
Prop firms8 min read
20%chance of at least 10 losses in a row in 200 trades at a 45% win rate
A profitable strategy can still fail a challenge. How to replay history under the exact rules, count passes and fails, and size risk from the daily limit.
Methodology8 min read
6,240one hour candles in a single year of forex
Write the rules, hide the future, record every trade, read the result with the right sample size. A nine step method with the ten columns your log needs.
Roundup9 min read
10forex backtesting tools, each checked at the source
10 forex backtesting tools checked at the source, by fit: discretionary, coded, MetaTrader, budget, and forex depth with every trade recorded.
Statistics6 min read
385trades to tell a 55% win rate from a coin flip
How many trades to backtest a strategy? About 385 to tell a 55% win rate from a coin flip, about 43 at 65%. The math, a table, and the trap.
Backtesting7 min read
7comparisons that separate strategy from execution
Slippage explains the gap for algos. If you backtest by hand, 7 comparisons across backtest and live trades show if it's your strategy or your execution.
Tools and references
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